How to read the MLB board: model, market, blended
Three probabilities per game, starters with FIP, and a gap flag. A two-minute guide to getting real value out of Modal's daily MLB board.
The MLB board shows a lot in a small space. Here's how to read it in the order that matters.
Start at the top
The board sorts by disagreement: the games where the model's number sits furthest from the market's come first. Games at the bottom are efficiently priced — nothing to see. Your reading time belongs to the top three rows.
The three numbers
Model is the pitcher-aware Elo's own view — team strength fused with the starter's FIP-weighted rating. Market is the de-vigged sharp consensus. Blended is what the engine actually acts on: mostly market, corrected by model, because testing showed that fusion beats either input alone. When model and market agree, the blend is boring — as it should be. When they split, the blend tells you how much the model's evidence was trusted.
The starter lines
Under each game: both probable starters with FIP. This is usually where a gap comes from — a starter whose FIP is far better or worse than his reputation, which means better or worse than his price. If a gap puzzles you, the mound almost always explains it.
The read
Members see the written analysis per game — what's driving the number, and whether the engine's real-money side bet it or passed. Free during the beta. And a standing reminder: a gap is a question, not a command. Analysis, not tips.
Frequently asked questions
What does the gap flag on the MLB board mean?+
It marks games where the model's probability sits several points from the market's — the games worth reading about. A gap is a question the analysis answers, not an automatic bet signal.
Every fixture, fully modelled — the correct-score grid, the derived markets, and the written read.
Start free