Blog
Football, modelled — and explained
How the numbers behind a match actually work: xG, scoreline distributions, calibration, and reading a fixture the way the model does. No tips — the thinking.
16 July 2026
What xG really measures (and what it doesn't)
Expected goals (xG) is the most quoted stat in modern football analysis. Here's what it actually tells you, where it misleads, and how a model should use it.
xGfootball analyticsexplainers· 3 min read
15 July 2026
How we model a match: Dixon-Coles, explained
The Dixon-Coles model is the workhorse behind serious football prediction. Here's how it turns team strength into a full scoreline distribution — in plain language.
Dixon-Colesmodellingexplainers· 3 min read
14 July 2026
The modal scoreline: why the most likely score isn't the likely winner
A team can be a clear favourite while the single most probable scoreline is a draw. Here's the counterintuitive maths behind the modal scoreline — and why it's the honest way to read a match.
probabilityexplainersmodal scoreline· 3 min read