See the edge in
every match.
A Dixon-Coles model reads every game — the full probability picture, the edge versus the market, and one clear verdict. Analysis, not tips: you see exactly what the model sees.
Home xG edge puts value on Bayern; the scrappy 1–1 mode says it won't be pretty.
The model called 80% right in UEFA Europa Conference League.
8–2 in UEFA Europa Conference League — 55.4% across every league, vs the market’s 53.7%. Every call graded against the real result, wins and losses, no cherry-picking.
See the full recordThe graphic is the product
Not a hot-take feed. A model that shows every scoreline, every market, and where it disagrees with the market — rendered so the read lands in one glance.
Full score grid
Every scoreline, shaded by probability — the Dixon-Coles matrix, not a single guess.
Model vs market
Model probability against the market line. The gap is the edge, quantified in points.
One honest read
xG, derived markets and a plain-language verdict in the Momus voice. No tout, no noise.
How the model reads a match
Estimate the goals
Team attack & defence strengths, home edge and recent xG feed a Poisson goal rate for each side.
Build the score grid
A Dixon-Coles correction fixes low-score correlation, giving a full probability for every scoreline.
Compare to the market
Model probabilities meet the market line. Where they diverge is the edge — the only thing worth posting.