See the edge in
every game.
Real models, per sport: Dixon-Coles for football, a pitcher-aware Elo for MLB — the full probability picture, the edge versus the market, and one clear verdict per game. Analysis, not tips: you see exactly what the model sees.
Home xG edge puts value on Bayern; the scrappy 1–1 mode says it won't be pretty.
The model called 80% right in UEFA Europa Conference League.
8–2 in UEFA Europa Conference League — 55.1% across every league, vs the market’s 53.2%. Every call graded against the real result, wins and losses, no cherry-picking.
See the full recordThe graphic is the product
Not a hot-take feed. A model that shows every scoreline, every market, and where it disagrees with the market — rendered so the read lands in one glance.
Full score grid
Every scoreline, shaded by probability — the Dixon-Coles matrix, not a single guess.
Model vs market
Model probability against the market line. The gap is the edge, quantified in points.
One honest read
xG, derived markets and a plain-language verdict in the Momus voice. No tout, no noise.
How the models read a game
Model the sport, not 'sports'
Each sport gets its own machine: Poisson goal rates with a Dixon-Coles score grid for football; a team Elo fused with the starting pitcher's FIP for MLB.
Respect the market
The model's number is blended against the sharp market consensus — testing showed the fusion beats either input alone. Pretending to beat Vegas raw is marketing, not method.
Publish the disagreement
Model meets market on every game. Where they diverge is the edge — the only thing worth posting, and the analysis explains which signal is doing the pulling.