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Ligue 1
Sun 17:00Lille v Nice
Ligue 1
Sun 17:00LIL
Lille
modal score
1–0
15.4% likely
NIC
Nice
LIL win52.4%
Draw29.9%
NIC win17.7%
xG home
1.42
xG away
0.72
total xG
2.14
correct score · modelLIL ↓ · NIC →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.536.1%
Under 2.563.9%
BTTS: Yes40.2%
model edge
LIL win
model
52.4%
book
2.00
EV
+4.9%
¼ Kelly
1.2%
Lille control games without conceding much while Nice score only in fits, and the model rates the hosts a clear notch above where the market has settled. The book's 2.00 on LIL win implies 50.0%; the model says 52.4%. That 2.4-point gap clears the price-scaled edge floor — a small-stake LIL win lean.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
LIL winedge52.4%1.912.00+2.4
Draw29.9%3.343.20-1.3
NIC win17.7%5.675.40-0.9
Over 2.536.1%2.772.60-2.4
Under 2.563.9%1.561.50-2.7
BTTS: Yes40.2%2.492.40-1.4
Recent form
LIL
WWDLW
NIC
DDLDW
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 1.42 / 0.72 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose