← The deskPASS
La Liga
Sat 21:00Girona v Real Betis
La Liga
Sat 21:00GIR
Girona
modal score
1–1
14.1% likely
BET
Real Betis
GIR win37.2%
Draw29.4%
BET win33.4%
xG home
1.32
xG away
1.24
total xG
2.56
correct score · modelGIR ↓ · BET →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.547.1%
Under 2.552.9%
BTTS: Yes53.5%
model edge
BTTS: Yes
model
53.5%
book
1.82
EV
-2.7%
¼ Kelly
-0.8%
A genuine coin-flip: two mid-table sides with near-identical expected goals, and the book has every line pinned close to the model's own numbers. Nothing clears the floor: the model's biggest disagreement is BTTS: Yes (53.5% vs the book's 54.9%), a -1.5-point gap that sits inside the noise. A pass — and a pass is content too.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
GIR win37.2%2.692.60-1.3
Draw29.4%3.403.20-1.8
BET win33.4%2.992.90-1.1
Over 2.547.1%2.122.05-1.7
Under 2.552.9%1.891.83-1.8
BTTS: Yes53.5%1.871.82-1.5
Recent form
GIR
DWLDW
BET
WDDLW
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 1.32 / 1.24 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose