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Bundesliga
Sat 15:30Freiburg v Mainz
Bundesliga
Sat 15:30SCF
Freiburg
modal score
1–1
13.0% likely
M05
Mainz
SCF win42.3%
Draw27.5%
M05 win30.2%
xG home
1.55
xG away
1.28
total xG
2.83
correct score · modelSCF ↓ · M05 →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%
BTTS: Yes58.1%
model edge
M05 win
model
30.2%
book
3.20
EV
-3.3%
¼ Kelly
-0.4%
An open, transition-heavy Bundesliga fixture — but the book has read it the same way the model has, and there is nothing left on any line worth the stake. Nothing clears the floor: the model's biggest disagreement is M05 win (30.2% vs the book's 31.3%), a -1.0-point gap that sits inside the noise. A pass — and a pass is content too.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
SCF win42.3%2.362.25-2.1
Draw27.5%3.643.40-1.9
M05 win30.2%3.313.20-1.0
Over 2.553.7%1.861.80-1.9
Under 2.546.3%2.162.05-2.5
BTTS: Yes58.1%1.721.66-2.1
Recent form
SCF
LWDWL
M05
DWLWD
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 1.55 / 1.28 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose