← The deskBET
Premier League
Sat 17:30Brighton v Aston Villa
Premier League
Sat 17:30BHA
Brighton
modal score
1–0
12.8% likely
AVL
Aston Villa
BHA win59.0%
Draw25.7%
AVL win15.3%
xG home
1.74
xG away
0.78
total xG
2.52
correct score · modelBHA ↓ · AVL →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%
BTTS: Yes45.8%
model edge
BHA win
model
59.0%
book
1.80
EV
+6.2%
¼ Kelly
1.9%
Brighton's press rating sits a full tier above Villa's build-out under pressure, and the model gives them 1.74 xG at home against a defence conceding from open play in five of six. The book's 1.80 on BHA win implies 55.6%; the model says 59.0%. That 3.4-point gap clears the price-scaled edge floor — a small-stake BHA win lean.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
BHA winedge59.0%1.701.80+3.4
Draw25.7%3.893.70-1.3
AVL win15.3%6.555.00-4.7
Over 2.546.0%2.171.90-6.6
Under 2.554.0%1.851.82-1.0
BTTS: Yes45.8%2.181.95-5.4
Recent form
BHA
WWDWL
AVL
LDWLD
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 1.74 / 0.78 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose