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Serie A
Sun 15:00Bologna v Torino
Serie A
Sun 15:00BOL
Bologna
modal score
0–0
15.4% likely
TOR
Torino
BOL win43.6%
Draw33.2%
TOR win23.2%
xG home
1.18
xG away
0.79
total xG
1.97
correct score · modelBOL ↓ · TOR →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.531.5%
Under 2.568.5%
BTTS: Yes39.3%
model edge
Under 2.5
model
68.5%
book
1.55
EV
+6.2%
¼ Kelly
2.8%
Two of Serie A's lowest-tempo sides meet with a combined 1.97 xG, and the model's mass piles up in the low-scoring corner of the grid. The book's 1.55 on Under 2.5 implies 64.5%; the model says 68.5%. That 4.0-point gap clears the price-scaled edge floor — a small-stake Under 2.5 lean.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
BOL win43.6%2.292.20-1.9
Draw33.2%3.012.90-1.3
TOR win23.2%4.314.10-1.2
Over 2.531.5%3.173.00-1.8
Under 2.5edge68.5%1.461.55+4.0
BTTS: Yes39.3%2.552.40-2.4
Recent form
BOL
WDDWD
TOR
DLDDW
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 1.18 / 0.79 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose