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Eredivisie
Sun 14:30AZ v Twente
Eredivisie
Sun 14:30AZ
AZ
modal score
1–1
10.8% likely
TWE
Twente
AZ win59.9%
Draw23.0%
TWE win17.1%
xG home
2.05
xG away
1.02
total xG
3.07
correct score · modelAZ ↓ · TWE →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
BTTS: Yes56.7%
model edge
AZ win
model
59.9%
book
1.75
EV
+4.8%
¼ Kelly
1.6%
AZ at home is one of the model's strongest home ratings in the set — 2.05 xG against a Twente side that leaks in transition. The book's 1.75 on AZ win implies 57.1%; the model says 59.9%. That 2.7-point gap clears the price-scaled edge floor — a small-stake AZ win lean.
Every market, priced
MarketModelFairBookEdge
AZ winedge59.9%1.671.75+2.7
Draw23.0%4.344.10-1.4
TWE win17.1%5.855.40-1.4
Over 2.559.0%1.691.65-1.6
Under 2.541.0%2.442.35-1.6
BTTS: Yes56.7%1.761.72-1.4
Recent form
AZ
WWWDW
TWE
WDLWD
How this read was made
01
Dixon-Coles model
λ 2.05 / 1.02 → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written argument above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record, win or lose