MLB · beta
⚽ Switch to football →Baseball, priced like we mean it.
Every game on today's slate, priced by a pitcher-aware Elo model — team strength fused with the starting pitcher's FIP, blended against the market. The same engine behind Momus's real-money record. Sorted by disagreement: the top of this page is where the model thinks the market is wrong.
Graded so far: 525 games · model right 59.4% vs market 63.9% — honest numbers, updated as games settle.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Sat, 08:11 PM UTCModel · Marlins
58%
Market · Marlins
44%
Blended · Marlins
50%
14pt gap
Cubs: Javier Assad · FIP 4.93Marlins: Ryan Gusto · FIP 3.89
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Sun, 01:41 AM UTCModel · Mariners
60%
Market · Mariners
68%
Blended · Mariners
65%
8pt gap
Athletics: Gage Jump · FIP 3.88Mariners: Bryan Woo · FIP 3.35
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Sat, 11:16 PM UTCModel · Astros
43%
Market · Astros
50%
Blended · Astros
47%
7pt gap
Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt · FIP 4.09Astros: Ethan Pecko · FIP 7.84
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Sat, 10:11 PM UTCModel · Guardians
65%
Market · Guardians
59%
Blended · Guardians
61%
6pt gap
Tigers: Framber Valdez · FIP 4.04Guardians: Parker Messick · FIP 3.08
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Sat, 10:41 PM UTCModel · Reds
35%
Market · Reds
41%
Blended · Reds
38%
6pt gap
Brewers: Dustin May · FIP 3.31Reds: Andrew Abbott · FIP 4.86
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Sat, 11:06 PM UTCModel · Rangers
44%
Market · Rangers
50%
Blended · Rangers
47%
6pt gap
Rays: Drew Rasmussen · FIP 2.82Rangers: Jacob deGrom · FIP 3.14
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Sat, 11:11 PM UTCModel · Sox
47%
Market · Sox
53%
Blended · Sox
51%
6pt gap
Twins: Taj Bradley · FIP 3.90Sox: Anthony Kay · FIP 4.38
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Sun, 12:11 AM UTCModel · Rockies
41%
Market · Rockies
47%
Blended · Rockies
45%
6pt gap
Cardinals: Kyle Leahy · FIP 3.51Rockies: Tanner Gordon · FIP 4.57
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Sat, 10:06 PM UTCModel · Phillies
56%
Market · Phillies
59%
Blended · Phillies
58%
Braves: Martín Pérez · FIP 4.17Phillies: Zack Wheeler · FIP 3.63
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Sat, 11:06 PM UTCModel · Orioles
46%
Market · Orioles
43%
Blended · Orioles
44%
Sox: Sonny Gray · FIP 3.50Orioles: Chris Bassitt · FIP 4.34
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Sat, 11:11 PM UTCModel · Royals
53%
Market · Royals
51%
Blended · Royals
52%
Jays: Max Scherzer · FIP 5.64Royals: Seth Lugo · FIP 4.09
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Sat, 11:16 PM UTCModel · Padres
49%
Market · Padres
51%
Blended · Padres
50%
Yankees: Carlos Rodón · FIP 3.69Padres: Robbie Ray · FIP 4.67
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Sat, 08:11 PM UTCModel · Mets
63%
Market · Mets
62%
Blended · Mets
63%
Giants: Anthony Molina · FIP 4.14Mets: Zac Thornton · FIP 3.85
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Sat, 10:41 PM UTCModel · Pirates
62%
Market · Pirates
63%
Blended · Pirates
62%
Angels: Yusei Kikuchi · FIP 4.38Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft · FIP 3.46
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Sun, 01:11 AM UTCModel · Dodgers
67%
Market · Dodgers
67%
Blended · Dodgers
67%
Nationals: Cade Cavalli · FIP 3.18Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow · FIP 2.82
MLB on Modal is free during the beta. Per-sport plans (football, MLB, or both at a discount) arrive when the beta ends — see pricing. Analysis, not tips: we publish probabilities and reasoning, you make your own decisions.