MomusModal
Track record

Every prediction, graded in the open

For every settled match we compare the model's most-likely outcome to what actually happened. Prediction accuracy and calibration — not ROI, not tips. An analysis you can't check is just a tip.

73
Settled predictions
publicly graded
74%
Favourite didn't lose
1X / X2 double chance
43.8%
1X2 accuracy
vs 33% coin-flip
0.240
Calibration · Brier
lower is better

Accuracy by window

Last 30 days43.8% · n=73
Last 90 days43.8% · n=73
All settled43.8% · n=73

Confidence vs outcomes

39.9%
avg confidence
43.8%
realized
3.9pt
gap

When the model says it's X% confident, does it hit X% of the time? A small gap means the probabilities are honest.

Reliability by predicted outcome

Home win41.7% · n=48
Draw100% · n=1
Away win45.8% · n=24

League evidence

LeagueSettledAccuracy
Europa Conference League1957.9%
UCL1546.7%
UEL1338.5%
Norway Eliteserien955.6%
K-league728.6%
NWSL60%
Liga MX250%
Brazil Serie A1100%
MLS10%

How we compare

Most prediction sites lead with a single, round headline win-rate — usually blended across easy markets (like over-0.5-goals), quoted as marketing, and rarely graded in the open. We publish the hard one instead: 1X2 accuracy on the actual result, with the full sample and method, updated live. Judge us on that.

SourceHeadlineWhat it measuresGraded in the open?
Momus Modal43.8%1X2 result · n=73Yes — this page
Footix49.3%1X2 result · n=1,660Yes
NerdyTips"75% win rate"Blended markets, guaranteedNo
PredictZ, StatArea, othersDaily tipsMixed, per-tipNo graded record

Cross-site numbers aren't apples-to-apples — different markets, leagues, samples and grading rules — so read this as context, not a scoreboard. Competitor claims cited from their public pages (nerdytips.com), July 2026.

Test your own strategy.

Slice this record your way — by league, outcome, model confidence, divergence from the market or price bracket — and see the model's accuracy on exactly those fixtures.

Strategy workspace →

Predictions graded on the 1X2 result. Club-competition fixtures only — World Cup and internationals run on a separate model and aren't counted here. Educational analysis, not betting advice.