Premier LeagueSat 5 Sept
— The read
The model's read leans to Nottingham Forest (43.8%), with the 1X2 splitting 43.8% / 28.5% / 27.7% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — the de-vigged market (39/28/33).
Model pick
NFO · 44%
Edge vs market
+4pp
Confidence
Low
Model prediction · 1X2
1 · NFO
44%
X · Draw
28%
2 · TOT
28%
Modal model market implied
Outcome
Model
Market
Edge
1 · NFO
44%
39%
+4pp
X · Draw
28%
28%
+1pp
2 · TOT
28%
33%
-5pp
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