Premier LeagueSat 5 Sept
— The read
The model's read leans to Newcastle (43.7%), with the 1X2 splitting 43.7% / 25.5% / 30.7% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — the de-vigged market (46/26/28).
Model pick
NEW · 44%
Edge vs market
-2pp
Confidence
Low
Model prediction · 1X2
1 · NEW
44%
X · Draw
26%
2 · BOU
31%
Modal model market implied
Outcome
Model
Market
Edge
1 · NEW
44%
46%
-2pp
X · Draw
26%
26%
0pp
2 · BOU
31%
28%
+2pp
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