UEFA Champions LeagueTue 8 Sept
— The read
The model's read leans to Manchester City (49.8%), with the 1X2 splitting 23.3% / 27.0% / 49.8% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — the de-vigged market (21/24/56).
Model pick
MCI · 50%
Edge vs market
-6pp
Confidence
Medium
Model prediction · 1X2
1 · POR
23%
X · Draw
27%
2 · MCI
50%
Modal model market implied
Outcome
Model
Market
Edge
1 · POR
23%
21%
+2pp
X · Draw
27%
24%
+3pp
2 · MCI
50%
56%
-6pp
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