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Brazil Serie A

Fluminense vs RB Bragantino

Match analysis

Fri 17 Jul
Brazil Serie A
Fri 17 Jul
FLU
Fluminense
modal score
1–1
12.2% likely
RBR
RB Bragantino
FLU win30.0%
Draw29.0%
RBR win41.0%
xG home
1.47
xG away
1.19
total xG
2.66
correct score · modelFLU ↓ · RBR →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
BTTS: Yes53.5%
Momus's read

The model's read leans to RB Bragantino (41.0%), with the 1X2 splitting 30.0% / 29.0% / 41.0% home/draw/away.

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The dossier

Team form

Home
Fluminense
LWDWW
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
Goals: 12:4
Recent matches
2026-05-23Mirassol0-1L
2026-05-28Deportivo La Guaira3-1W
2026-05-31Cruzeiro1-1D
2026-07-08Nova Iguaçu6-1W
2026-07-12Bahia2-0W
Away
RB Bragantino
DWWWW
4
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
Goals: 11:3
Recent matches
2026-05-21River Plate1-1D
2026-05-24Vasco DA Gama3-0W
2026-05-28Carabobo FC2-0W
2026-05-31Internacional3-1W
2026-07-11Atletico Paranaense2-1W

Advanced stats

Fluminense
Clean sheet %10%
BTTS %80%
Scoring first %67%
Failed to score %10%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 90%O2.5: 60%O3.5: 30%
RB Bragantino
Clean sheet %40%
BTTS %50%
Scoring first %100%
Failed to score %10%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 100%O2.5: 60%O3.5: 20%

Goal timing

FLU
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75
RBR
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75

Standings

TeamPosW-D-LGDPts
Fluminense39-4-5+531
RB Bragantino59-2-7+629

Bookmaker odds · market reference

Head to head

10 meetings6-2-2
Fluminense v RB Bragantino2-1
RB Bragantino v Fluminense0-1
Fluminense v RB Bragantino2-1
Fluminense v RB Bragantino2-1
RB Bragantino v Fluminense2-2

Injuries & absences

FLUMatheus Reis
FLUSamuel Xavier
FLUVitor Eudes
FLUMatheus Reis
FLUSamuel Xavier
FLUVitor Eudes
RBRDavi Gomes
RBREduardo Santos
RBRFabinho
RBRFabricio

Every market, modelled

LineModelFair price
FLU win30.0%3.33
Draw29.0%3.45
RBR win41.0%2.44
Over 2.549.7%2.01
Under 2.550.3%1.99
BTTS: Yes53.5%1.87

How this read was made

01
The model reads the match
Dixon-Coles latent strengths → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written analysis above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record