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Serie A

Botafogo vs Vitoria

Match analysis

Thu 23 Jul
Serie A
Thu 23 Jul
BOT
Botafogo
modal score
2–1
9.3% likely
VIT
Vitoria
BOT win56.3%
Draw20.6%
VIT win23.1%
xG home
2.23
xG away
1.39
total xG
3.62
correct score · modelBOT ↓ · VIT →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
BTTS: Yes67.3%
Momus's read

The model's read leans to Botafogo (56.3%), with the 1X2 splitting 56.3% / 20.6% / 23.1% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — the de-vigged market (54/28/19).

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The dossier

Team form

Home
Botafogo
WDWLW
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
Goals: 10:5
Recent matches
2026-05-21Independiente Petrolero3-0W
2026-05-23Sao Paulo1-1D
2026-05-27Caracas FC3-1W
2026-05-30Bahia1-2L
2026-07-16Santos2-1W
Away
Vitoria
WLWWW
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
Goals: 10:8
Recent matches
2026-05-28ABC4-3W
2026-05-30Santos1-3L
2026-06-03Fortaleza EC2-1W
2026-06-06Fortaleza EC2-1W
2026-07-16Vasco DA Gama1-0W

Advanced stats

Botafogo
Clean sheet %13%
BTTS %75%
Scoring first %83%
Failed to score %13%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 100%O2.5: 63%O3.5: 25%
Vitoria
Clean sheet %30%
BTTS %60%
Scoring first %33%
Failed to score %10%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 90%O2.5: 60%O3.5: 40%

Goal timing

BOT
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75
VIT
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75

Standings

TeamPosW-D-LGDPts
Botafogo107-4-7+125
Vitoria127-4-7-325

Bookmaker odds · market reference

42 bookmakersHomeDrawAway
William Hill1.733.404.60
888sport1.733.404.60
Unibet (FR)1.673.304.30
1xBet1.803.524.94
LeoVegas1.753.604.60
Codere (IT)1.773.554.60
Winamax (DE)1.723.554.30
Coolbet1.773.455.15
Betclic (FR)1.703.404.40
Winamax (FR)1.683.404.10
Paddy Power1.733.504.33
Sky Bet1.703.404.20
Smarkets1.813.805.20
Marathon Bet1.753.424.80
Betfred (UK)1.703.754.33
BoyleSports1.703.504.33
Ladbrokes1.753.704.40
Coral1.753.754.50
Unibet (UK)1.783.504.60
Pinnacle1.793.465.17
Matchbook1.803.755.30
GTbets1.753.534.92
Betano (UK)1.753.704.50
Bet Victor1.753.704.50
Betfair Sportsbook1.753.604.50
Tipico1.703.504.70
Everygame1.733.305.00
Betway1.773.404.75
BetOnline.ag1.793.625.00
BetAnything1.793.625.00
LiveScore Bet1.663.554.70
Virgin Bet1.663.554.70
LeoVegas (SE)1.683.604.75
PMU (FR)1.663.554.70
Casumo1.713.704.80
Unibet (SE)1.713.704.80
Unibet (NL)1.713.704.80
Grosvenor1.713.704.80
Betfair1.803.805.20
Betfair1.803.805.20
Nordic Bet1.753.554.45
Betsson1.753.554.45
Average1.743.574.69

Head to head

10 meetings5-5-0
Botafogo v Vitoria1-0
Vitoria v Botafogo0-0
Botafogo v Vitoria1-0
Vitoria v Botafogo3-4
Botafogo v Vitoria1-1

Injuries & absences

BOTAllan
BOTDanilo Santos
BOTN. Ferraresi
BOTJunior Santos
BOTKaio Pantaleao
BOTArthur Cabral
BOTBastos
BOTAllan
BOTDanilo Santos
BOTN. Ferraresi

Every market, modelled

LineModelFair price
BOT win56.3%1.78
Draw20.6%4.86
VIT win23.1%4.33
Over 2.570.1%1.43
Under 2.529.9%3.34
BTTS: Yes67.3%1.49

How this read was made

01
The model reads the match
Dixon-Coles latent strengths → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written analysis above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record