Premier LeagueMon 31 Aug
— The read
The model's read leans to Arsenal (51.5%), with the 1X2 splitting 20.0% / 28.5% / 51.5% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — the de-vigged market (15/22/63).
Model pick
ARS · 52%
Edge vs market
-11pp
Confidence
Medium
Model prediction · 1X2
1 · AVI
20%
X · Draw
28%
2 · ARS
52%
Modal model market implied
Outcome
Model
Market
Edge
1 · AVI
20%
15%
+5pp
X · Draw
28%
22%
+6pp
2 · ARS
52%
63%
-11pp
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