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MLS
Thu 16 JulChicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Prediction & analysis
MLS
Thu 16 JulCFI
Chicago Fire
modal score
0–1
12.8% likely
VWH
Vancouver Whitecaps
CFI win20.6%
Draw23.9%
VWH win55.5%
xG home
0.91
xG away
1.66
total xG
2.57
correct score · modelCFI ↓ · VWH →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%
BTTS: Yes48.0%
Momus's read
The model's read leans to Vancouver Whitecaps (55.5%), with the 1X2 splitting 20.6% / 23.9% / 55.5% home/draw/away. Two baselines sit behind it — a Poisson goals model (10/45/45) and the de-vigged market (36/25/39).
Market lab
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The dossier
Team form
Home
Chicago Fire
LLWWW
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
Goals: 10:8
Recent matches
2026-05-03FC Cincinnati2-3L
2026-05-09New York Red Bulls1-3L
2026-05-13DC United3-1W
2026-05-16CF Montreal2-0W
2026-05-24Toronto FC2-1W
Away
Vancouver Whitecaps
WLWWD
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
Goals: 12:7
Recent matches
2026-05-14FC Dallas3-2W
2026-05-17Houston Dynamo0-1L
2026-05-24San Diego4-2W
2026-07-09Cavalry FC4-1W
2026-07-14Cavalry FC1-1D
Advanced stats
Chicago Fire
Clean sheet %30%
BTTS %70%
Scoring first %67%
Failed to score %0%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 90%O2.5: 80%O3.5: 50%
Vancouver Whitecaps
Clean sheet %20%
BTTS %70%
Scoring first %17%
Failed to score %10%
O0.5: 100%O1.5: 90%O2.5: 50%O3.5: 40%
Goal timing
CFI
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75
VWH
scored
0
15
30
45
60
75
conceded
0
15
30
45
60
75
Standings
TeamPosW-D-LGDPts
Chicago Fire38-2-4+1126
Vancouver Whitecaps110-2-2+2232
Bookmaker odds · market reference
41 bookmakersHomeDrawAway
Betfair2.724.002.58
Smarkets2.744.002.58
Marathon Bet2.563.702.43
Betfair2.724.002.58
1xBet2.663.852.53
William Hill2.503.602.40
Sky Bet2.503.802.38
888sport2.503.602.40
Winamax (FR)2.453.652.20
Winamax (DE)2.503.802.30
Paddy Power2.603.752.40
Betclic (FR)2.573.682.28
BoyleSports2.403.752.20
Tipico2.553.602.40
LeoVegas2.553.752.35
Coral2.453.602.30
Ladbrokes2.453.602.30
Betfred (UK)2.503.752.38
PMU (FR)2.633.402.33
Grosvenor2.703.502.40
Virgin Bet2.603.402.30
Unibet (SE)2.753.552.40
Unibet (NL)2.753.552.40
Casumo2.753.552.40
LeoVegas (SE)2.803.602.45
LiveScore Bet2.603.402.30
Bet Victor2.553.802.40
Pinnacle2.623.922.52
Betfair Sportsbook2.633.802.40
Betsson2.683.702.48
Nordic Bet2.683.702.48
Coolbet2.604.002.40
Betway2.503.802.40
MyBookie.ag2.643.802.39
GTbets2.683.772.33
Unibet (FR)2.553.652.25
Betano (UK)2.553.802.40
BetOnline.ag2.623.902.52
Everygame2.503.752.45
BetAnything2.623.902.52
Matchbook2.724.002.58
Average2.603.722.40
Head to head
9 meetings3-1-5
Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps0-2
Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps1-1
Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire3-2
Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps4-0
Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire2-1
Injuries & absences
CFIA. Franco
CFIJ. Bamba
CFIL. Barroso
CFIA. Franco
CFIJ. Bamba
CFIL. Barroso
VWHB. Halbouni
VWHE. Sabbi
VWHC. Sabaly
VWHB. Halbouni
Every market, modelled
LineModelFair price
CFI win20.6%4.85
Draw23.9%4.19
VWH win55.5%1.80
Over 2.547.4%2.11
Under 2.552.6%1.90
BTTS: Yes48.0%2.08
How this read was made
01
The model reads the match
Dixon-Coles latent strengths → full scoreline grid
02
Momus writes the read
Model output turned into the written analysis above
03
Shadow-check
Read re-scored against the model before publishing
04
Published
Kept on the open record